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Russian satellite neared commercial craft supporting Ukraine, raising attack concerns
A Russian military satellite came within about a kilometre of a commercial satellite used by Western governments and Ukraine, prompting a US space analyst to say the manoeuvre looked like a possible attack rehearsal. The incident has heightened concern about the vulnerability of commercial satellites, which have become increasingly important to military operations.
Cosmos 2612 approached ICEYE’s X36 satellite over South America in mid-October; some analysts said it came within a few hundred metres or less. The Russian craft later moved about 400 kilometres away, while two related satellites are now heading towards the orbital path of ICEYE’s X37. Moscow has warned that Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine could be targets, while ICEYE says its radar-imaging network is resilient to disruption.
In short
- Cosmos 2612 passed close to ICEYE’s X36 satellite.
- Analysts say the manoeuvre may have tested attack capabilities.
- Two Russian satellites are now moving towards ICEYE’s X37.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The close approach, alongside Russia’s warnings about commercial satellites supporting Ukraine, could reasonably be seen as a deliberate rehearsal or signal of intent. Because these satellites provide military-relevant services, governments have grounds to assess the incident as a security risk and strengthen monitoring and resilience before a disruption occurs.
The case against
A close orbital approach does not by itself establish hostile intent: satellites may manoeuvre for other purposes, and the reported distance is uncertain. Treating an ambiguous incident as an attack rehearsal could heighten tensions, so analysts should distinguish verified movements from inferences and avoid drawing firm conclusions without further evidence.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Russia ‘rehearsed attack on satellite by sending spacecraft to fly past orbiting tech used by Western governments’”.