SARAH VINE: Know-all men sneered when I told them Kemi is a winner. Now they all agree with me!
Sarah Vine argues that Kemi Badenoch has been underestimated and is now gaining recognition as a serious political contender. She says Badenoch’s resilience and willingness to make difficult arguments have helped restore the Conservatives’ prospects after a period of internal conflict and poor standing.
Vine points to a poll after Badenoch’s conference speech that put the Conservatives on 23 points, ahead of Reform and just behind Labour on 24. She recalls that Badenoch became party leader in 2024 when the Conservatives held 119 seats, compared with Labour’s 410, and credits her with imposing a clearer direction despite defections by figures including Robert Jenrick.
- Vine says Badenoch was underestimated by critics.
- A post-conference poll put the Conservatives on 23 points.
- The party trailed Labour by one point and led Reform.
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Kemi Badenoch is the leader of the Conservative Party, which lost power after 14 years in government at the 2024 general election. Labour won 410 seats and the Conservatives 119, leaving the party to rebuild in opposition.
Badenoch became leader later in 2024, after a period of internal disputes and declining support. Robert Jenrick, a former Conservative minister and leadership rival, was among those who later left the party.
The Conservatives compete with Labour and Reform UK for voters, and opinion polls offer a snapshot of support rather than election results. The party’s direction and standing matter as it seeks to recover from its defeat and challenge the government.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Badenoch’s supporters can argue that she has brought clearer direction and resilience to a party emerging from a heavy election defeat and internal conflict. A poll placing the Conservatives close to Labour and ahead of Reform after her conference speech offers some evidence that her approach is restoring the party’s standing.
The case against
Critics can argue that one poll after a conference speech is only a snapshot and does not show a lasting recovery or establish that Badenoch’s leadership caused the movement. With the Conservatives still far behind Labour in seats and facing defections, they may question whether clearer messaging has yet translated into broader support or durable unity.