Saudi Arabia is trying to avoid being drawn fully into the US-Iran war that began on 28 February, but after being attacked from three directions it has now joined the US in carrying out strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq blamed for launching drones at the kingdom. This leaves Riyadh weighing whether to keep retaliating as a deterrent or to seek de-escalation, potentially by paying off adversaries, a decision that matters because continued attacks threaten Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's Vision 2030 plan to diversify the economy and draw foreign investment.

The conflict broadly pits Iran and its Revolutionary Guards Corps, along with allied groups such as Yemen's Houthis, Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (accused of roughly 30 drone strikes on Saudi Arabia) and a currently subdued Hezbollah, against the US-led Centcom forces backed to varying degrees by Gulf Arab states and Jordan, with Israel a close ally but not an active combatant. Iran has recently focused missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain and has targeted shipping evading its rules in the Strait of Hormuz, while memories of a 2019 drone attack on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, which knocked out half the kingdom's oil exports for days, underline how exposed its infrastructure remains.