Senate control is a coin flip — and Democrats’ path runs through Trump Country

With six days until Election Day, control of the Senate is rated a toss-up, and Democrats’ route to a majority largely depends on winning seats in states Donald Trump carried in 2024. Republicans hold a 53–47 advantage but face the historical tendency for the party in power to lose ground in midterms, alongside inflation, an unpopular war with Iran and declining approval ratings for Trump.

The forecast favours Democrats in 48 seats and Republicans in 47, with both parties three seats short of a majority; Republicans need 50 to retain control because Vice-President JD Vance can break ties. Ohio shifted from toss-up to Lean Democrat, while South Carolina and Mississippi moved towards the Democrats; other competitive contests include Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Texas and Michigan. The article says either party could finish with as many as 53 seats for Democrats or 52 for Republicans.