A group of US senators has written to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) demanding action against prediction markets that let people bet on wildfires, arguing such contracts profit off human suffering and could incentivise arson. The letter, sent by lawmakers from Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota and New Hampshire, comes as wildfires actively burn across the Pacific Northwest, lending the demand added urgency and prompting sharp criticism from firefighting and fire-research experts.

The senators' letter cites Polymarket's hosting of bets on the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires and another site offering "simulated bets" on California fires, warning of risks including arson and insider trading. It follows the arrest of an arson suspect linked to a blaze threatening Spokane, Washington, where hundreds of buildings have been destroyed and roughly a quarter of residents evacuated. Rival platform Kalshi said it bans wildfire markets over "perverse incentives," while Polymarket defended betting as a source of accurate information and claimed it currently has no active wildfire markets. Wildfire experts, including a UC Berkeley fire researcher and the head of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, condemned the markets as disturbing given the human cost involved.