One Nation edges ahead of Labor in long-held Melbourne seat of Footscray
A Greens-commissioned poll has revealed a dramatic collapse in Labor support in Footscray, a Melbourne working-class seat Labor has held since 1927. One Nation now leads on primary votes at 28.6 per cent against Labor's 27.5 per cent, marking a shocking reversal in one of the party's safest electorates and signalling serious trouble ahead of November's Victorian election.
The poll of 1,000 voters conducted in late September shows Labor's primary vote has fallen 15.6 percentage points from 43.1 per cent in 2022, when current MP Katie Hall won the seat. The Greens, who challenged Labor heavily four years ago with 22.4 per cent, have also slumped to 14.9 per cent. Broader statewide polling from Freshwater Strategy reinforces Labor's vulnerability, showing the Coalition ahead 53-47 on two-party preferred basis, an eight-point swing against the government since the last election.
- One Nation has overtaken Labor in Footscray after 99 years of Labor rule.
- Labor's primary vote collapsed by 15.6 points from 43.1% in 2022.
- Broader Victorian polls show Labor struggling ahead of November's state election.
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Footscray is a working-class electorate that Labor has held since 1927, making it one of the party's safest seats. Historically, electorates with long-standing political loyalties are among the last places voters abandon their established representatives, making any threat to them particularly significant.
Victoria will hold a state election in November, with Labor seeking to retain government. Changes in a major party's stronghold seats are particularly significant because they often signal broader shifts in how voters across the state are thinking.
One Nation is a minor party that has historically struggled to gain ground in Victoria, where the major parties have dominated state politics. Any competitive showing by a minor party in a traditionally secure Labor seat represents an unusual development in the state's political landscape.
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The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
This polling reflects genuine voter discontent with Labor in what should be an unshakeable stronghold. The 15.6-point collapse in primary vote, combined with One Nation's narrow lead and the consistency with broader statewide polling showing Labor trailing significantly, indicates a real structural shift in voter sentiment. If Labor has genuinely lost working-class voters to protest parties in safe seats, this represents serious danger ahead of the November election.
The case against
Whilst the figures merit attention, this single poll warrants cautious interpretation. The one-point margin between One Nation and Labor falls within typical polling error, the poll was commissioned by a political rival with incentive to highlight negative results for Labor, and historical precedent suggests dramatic single-seat polls often prove to be outliers. We should await additional evidence from other polling organisations before drawing definitive conclusions about whether this represents a genuine electoral shift or statistical variance.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Shock for Labor as One Nation takes the lead in poll of party’s Melbourne stronghold held for almost a century”.