Shock poll sees Conservatives leapfrog Reform as Kemi Badenoch pushes Nigel Farage into third place
Developing story first seen 2 hours ago
A poll by More in Common has put the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK for the first time in 18 months, pushing Nigel Farage's party into third place just as he returned to Parliament following his by-election win. The findings also show Kemi Badenoch back in net positive approval for her leadership, while a senior Tory source claimed Farage was "floundering" amid infighting and an unresolved £5million donation row, adding it was "surely only a matter of time" before he quit. The shift matters politically because it suggests Badenoch may be gaining traction after a difficult period, Reform's momentum appears to be stalling, and Labour's bounce under Andy Burnham's influence is also fading.
The survey put Labour on 26 per cent (down one point), the Conservatives on 23 per cent (up one point), and Reform UK on 22 per cent (down one point, its lowest in 18 months), with the Liberal Democrats on 11 per cent, the Greens on 9 per cent and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain on 4 per cent. On leadership approval, Badenoch rose to +1, well behind Burnham's +13 but ahead of Ed Davey (-5) and Lowe (-12), while Farage languished on -27. Pollster Luke Tryl cautioned the changes were within the margin of error, and the poll follows Badenoch's frontbench reshuffle, which saw Andrew Griffith replace Mel Stride as shadow chancellor and Tom Tugendhat become shadow foreign secretary.
- Tories overtake Reform for first time in 18 months, poll finds
- Badenoch's approval rating turns positive; Farage's sits at -27
- Comes after Badenoch's frontbench reshuffle and Farage's Commons return
New here? Start with this
Conservatives, Labour and Reform UK are the three main parties currently competing for voters in Great Britain, alongside smaller parties including the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain. Kemi Badenoch leads the Conservatives, Nigel Farage leads Reform UK, and Sir Keir Starmer's Labour is in government, though its standing has recently been shaped by the influence of Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham. Opinion polls from firms such as More in Common are widely used to gauge how these parties are faring with voters between elections.
Reform UK had been consistently polling ahead of both major parties for some time, fuelling speculation about its ability to challenge Labour and the Conservatives at a future general election. Farage recently returned to Parliament after winning a by-election, while his party has faced questions over internal tensions and a disputed £5million donation. Badenoch, meanwhile, has been trying to rebuild the Conservatives' fortunes since taking over the party leadership after its 2024 general election defeat, including through recent changes to her top team.
Polling shifts like these matter because they shape perceptions of which parties are gaining or losing momentum, which can affect internal party morale, donor confidence and media narratives long before any actual vote takes place. Pollsters typically caution that individual surveys carry a margin of error, so single results are usually treated as indicative rather than definitive.
More coverage