Sleeper GOP candidate puts blue-leaning state in play as fraud scandal shadows Dems
Republican Michele Tafoya is narrowing the gap with Democratic Lt Gov Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota’s Senate race, creating a rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in a state they have not won in nearly 25 years. The contest is drawing added attention as a major welfare fraud scandal has become a campaign issue and contributed to Governor Tim Walz abandoning his bid for re-election.
A Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll put Tafoya four points behind Flanagan, and Fox News shifted its race rating from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. Tafoya has criticised Flanagan’s role in the state administration and also proposed a plan to address gang-related shootings; Flanagan has condemned the fraud, acknowledged that more could have been done sooner, and said she was not responsible for the agencies involved.
- Tafoya trails Flanagan by four points in a new Minnesota poll.
- Republicans see a rare chance to win a Senate seat in the state.
- The welfare fraud scandal is a central issue in the campaign.
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Minnesota has long been a difficult state for Republicans to win statewide, though voters there elect candidates from both parties. The Senate contest is between Republican Michele Tafoya and Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the state’s lieutenant governor; the winner will represent Minnesota in the US Senate.
The campaign has also focused on a large fraud scandal involving state welfare programmes. Flanagan has condemned the fraud and said more could have been done sooner, while disputing responsibility for the agencies involved. The scandal has also affected Governor Tim Walz’s political plans, and has drawn attention to how state programmes are overseen.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Tafoya’s supporters can argue that a close race in a reliably Democratic state reflects voters’ desire for change after a serious fraud scandal exposed weaknesses in oversight. They may see her criticism of Flanagan’s role in the administration and her proposals on gang-related shootings as reasons to entrust Republicans with stronger accountability and public-safety policies.
The case against
Flanagan’s supporters can argue that polling still places her ahead and that responsibility for the fraud should be assessed against the roles of the officials and agencies directly involved, rather than assigned to her by association. They may also favour her experience as lieutenant governor and her acknowledgement that the response could have come sooner over replacing the Democratic leadership.