State of the climate: 2026 likely to tie with 2024 as the warmest year on record

Carbon Brief’s analysis finds 2026 is almost certain to be either the warmest or second-warmest year recorded, as human-caused warming combines with a strengthening El Niño. It estimates a 67% chance that 2026 will surpass 2024’s record, though temperature datasets differ considerably in their assessments.

The first nine months of 2026 ranked second-warmest across six datasets, about 0.06C cooler than the same period in 2024. August was the warmest on record for that month in all six datasets, while September was second-warmest in the five datasets reporting so far. The El Niño measure in the tropical Pacific reached its strongest level since satellite records began in 1981; the analysis projects a 96% chance that 2027 will be the warmest year, at about 1.7C above pre-industrial levels.