Strait of Hormuz still a source of leverage for Iran

Attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war began have put crews in danger and raised shipping and insurance costs. Iran’s ability to keep up the attacks, alongside the limits and cost of US protection, will help determine how much trade can pass through the waterway and at what price.

UKMTO recorded 325 transits from 29 October to 4 November, about 17% more than the previous week but still roughly 65% below pre-war levels. Middle Eastern crude exports across all routes have largely recovered, while petroleum product exports have roughly halved from 6.2 million barrels a day and Qatar and UAE LNG exports remained about 10% below pre-war levels in September. OPEC figures cited in the article show large-tanker freight rates from the Middle East to East Asia rose around twelvefold, from $3.18 to $37.13 per barrel by late October; the article says Iran’s economic pressures may limit its ability to sustain disruption.