STU BURGUIERE: Put your money where your mouth is: Prediction markets won the midterms

The opinion article argues that prediction markets offered a useful guide to the 2026 US midterms amid costly political advertising and competing campaign claims. It says markets can complement polling and reporting by giving people a way to assess the likelihood of outcomes through prices backed by money.

The article reports that Kalshi markets had the eventual winner ahead in 98% of tracked federal contests. It cites Kalshi’s analysis of more than 2.2 million resolved markets, an independent review of nearly 74,000 markets and academic research covering over one million forecasts, all finding prices broadly aligned with how often events occurred. The article notes that South Carolina candidate Annie Andrews was priced as an underdog before winning, arguing that a one-in-three chance still allows for upsets.