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‘Super’ El Niño could cause global food price shock lasting into 2028, analysts say
Economists are warning that a "super" El Niño weather cycle forming in 2026-27 could trigger a severe shock to global food prices that lasts into 2028, compounding inflation already driven higher by the Iran war. With world food prices at their highest level in three years, analysts say supply chains face "two shocks at once" — geopolitical disruption and extreme weather linked to global heating — raising the prospect of a renewed inflation shock that is worrying central banks and could keep interest rates elevated.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed warming Pacific conditions, with a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2C above normal later this year, potentially making the event more severe than past strong El Niños in 1981-82, 1996-97, 2015-16 and 2023-24. Goldman Sachs estimates the cycle could drive a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices and lift eurozone food prices by 1.3%, though the full impact may not be realised until the second half of 2028 owing to crop planting and harvesting cycles and logistical constraints such as canal and river water levels. El Niño has historically hit harvests hard, with a severe 19th-century event contributing to famines that killed millions, including more than 6 million people in India in 1876-78, while parts of India have already received only half their normal rainfall.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Those advocating for serious policy response argue that the convergence of climate science, economic analysis, and historical precedent presents a genuine systemic risk. NOAA's warming forecasts and El Niño's documented impacts on harvests provide a credible basis for concern, and the coincidence of weather shocks with geopolitical disruption creates unpredictable interactive effects on food markets. Investing in proactive measures—strategic reserves, agricultural support—is prudent insurance against a foreseeable risk to vulnerable populations.
The case against
Sceptics contend that multi-year weather forecasts carry inherent uncertainty, and whilst El Niño does affect yields, modern agriculture, global trade networks, and market mechanisms provide resilience that historical civilisations lacked. Markets typically absorb supply shocks through price signals and substitution rather than cascading failure, and previous warnings about climate-driven food crises have often proved exaggerated. Government interventions frequently backfire, and expending resources on responding to uncertain forecasts may divert attention from building long-term agricultural resilience.
Explained simply
El Niño is a weather system triggered by warming in the Pacific Ocean. This natural phenomenon disrupts weather patterns worldwide, causing droughts and heavy rains that damage crops in different regions.
Climate scientists expect a particularly strong El Niño to form in 2026-27. This comes at a time when global food prices have already risen sharply due to the Iran war and other supply chain disruptions, raising concerns about a severe squeeze on food affordability.
Previous El Niño events have caused significant spikes in food prices that affected people around the world. Economists warn that if this one is as powerful as expected, global food prices could climb sharply and stay elevated for years, pushing inflation higher and affecting household budgets and interest rates.
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