A Fox News poll puts Democrat James Talarico three points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’s US Senate race, 51% to 48%. The result suggests an unusually competitive contest in a state where Republicans have long dominated statewide elections, potentially making the seat important to control of the Senate.

The lead is within the poll’s margin of sampling error, so it does not establish a clear winner. Paxton, Texas’s attorney general, is the Republican nominee, while Talarico is a state representative; the race will be decided in the November midterm election.