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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US
Trade policy under the Trump administration has continued to shift rapidly amid tariff measures and geopolitical tension, including conflict involving Iran, but this has not achieved its stated goal of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States. In a Decoder podcast interview, Evan Smith, co-founder and chief executive of supply-chain software firm Altana, told host Nilay Patel that the reshoring effect promised by tariffs simply has not materialised, based on the extensive global trade data his company tracks.
Altana builds software that helps businesses manage complex international supply chains, giving Smith a broad, data-driven view of how trade patterns are actually changing. He noted that global supply chains remain essential despite the tariff push, while pressure on key economic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz is set to intensify. The conversation, a follow-up to an interview from early 2025, also touched on how developments in agentic AI are reshaping both what Altana's software can do and how the company itself operates.
In short
- Tariffs have not brought manufacturing jobs back to the US, Altana's CEO says
- Global supply chains remain vital despite ongoing trade disruption
- Strait of Hormuz pressure set to rise amid Iran tensions
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Tariffs have demonstrably failed to achieve their central stated objective of restoring manufacturing jobs to the United States. Analysis of comprehensive global trade data shows that supply chains remain largely unchanged despite tariff measures and geopolitical pressure, with no meaningful increase in manufacturing employment. The reshoring effect that was central to the policy's justification has simply not materialised in practice.
The case against
Whilst current data shows limited immediate results, supply chain restructuring operates on timescales of years, not months—companies require time to plan investments, secure financing, and build new facilities before manufacturing jobs materialise. Additionally, tariffs serve broader strategic purposes beyond immediate employment, including reducing dependence on geopolitically sensitive supply chains during periods of international tension. Premature judgement based on incomplete data risks abandoning a policy before its effects can fully develop.
Explained simply
The Trump administration introduced tariffs (taxes on imported goods) as part of its trade strategy. The aim was to make foreign products more expensive, encouraging manufacturers to relocate production to the United States.
Based on extensive data from supply-chain tracking software company Altana, this plan has not resulted in significant manufacturing growth in America. Global supply chains remain complex and interconnected, with companies continuing to source goods internationally despite the tariff increases.
This matters because bringing manufacturing jobs back to America has been a core concern in economic policy for decades. The findings suggest that tariffs alone may not be sufficient to reverse decades of globalisation in how goods are produced.
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