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Texas Turns Blue: How James Talarico, Gina Hinojosa Broke Dems’ 36-Year Losing Streak
James Talarico was projected to win Texas’s Senate race, while Gina Hinojosa was projected to become governor, ending decades-long Democratic losing streaks in the state. Their victories would mark a major political shift in traditionally Republican Texas, amid voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and weak campaigns by their Republican opponents.
With about 85 per cent of votes counted, Talarico led Ken Paxton by roughly 12 points and Hinojosa led Greg Abbott by seven; NBC and CNN called both races. Talarico faced an estimated $221 million in negative advertising, while Republican-aligned groups spent $316 million supporting Paxton. Abbott’s campaign outspent Hinojosa’s nearly eight to one, and Elon Musk donated $158 million to a Senate super PAC backing Paxton and $5 million to Abbott’s campaign.
In short
- Democrats were projected to win both major Texas races.
- Talarico led Paxton by about 12 points.
- Hinojosa was set to become Texas’s first Latina governor.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Democrats can argue that the projected wins reflect Texans’ frustration with the president and Republican incumbents, as well as a preference for candidates who made a stronger case to voters. A change in leadership could bring new priorities to a state long governed by Republicans and show that voters want greater accountability and political competition.
The case against
Republicans can argue that projected results do not by themselves establish a lasting shift in Texas, particularly with much of the vote still uncounted. They may also contend that a change in party control risks replacing policies they consider effective with a less tested agenda, and that the campaigns’ spending and candidate-specific weaknesses do not settle the broader case for Republican governance.
Explained simply
Texas has usually voted for Republicans in statewide elections, with Democrats struggling to win major offices for decades. The state’s growth and changing population have drawn attention to whether that pattern could shift, though Texas remains politically diverse across its cities, suburbs and rural areas.
James Talarico is a Democratic state legislator, and Gina Hinojosa is a Democratic state representative; Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott are Republicans who have held senior statewide offices. The Senate race concerns Texas’s representation in the US Congress, while the governor leads the state government and signs or vetoes state laws.
The results matter because they could change which party holds power in Texas and influence debates over issues such as immigration, education and abortion. They also offer a measure of voter views on national politics and the campaigns’ ability to reach a large, varied electorate.