Andy Burnham has taken over as prime minister with a burst of populist gestures and policy announcements, and early polling suggests it is working: Professor Sir John Curtice records a six-point boost for Labour since Sir Keir Starmer was replaced. This matters because it has reopened a political contest many assumed was already lost to Reform UK, shifting the debate from whether Nigel Farage's party would form the next government to whether a revived Conservative Party can hold off Reform for second place on the centre right.

The bounce splits four points for Burnham becoming PM and two for Starmer's resignation, a pattern polling experts say is typical when an unpopular leader is replaced, citing similar bounces for John Major, Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak (though it faded for Sunak and never appeared for Liz Truss). Burnham has combined "man of the people" touches, such as pub visits and blind taste-testing snacks on social media, with tangible policies including a £2 bus fare cap and removing VAT from energy bills, while appointing John Healey as chancellor to reassure both Labour factions and the markets. His momentum has been helped by Farage facing scrutiny over donations from a crypto billionaire and a convicted money launderer, though polls remain close, and experts caution the bounce may not translate into election victory.