The Premier League so far: draws, underperforming xG and other data pointers
The Premier League is experiencing widespread finishing problems this season, with expected goals (2.88 per game) significantly outpacing actual goals (2.70 per game). This underperformance has resulted in a record proportion of drawn matches, as 14 of 20 clubs have scored fewer goals than their underlying statistics suggest they should have.
The shortfall is particularly pronounced among elite attacking players, whose concentration of chances has intensified. Over the opening five weeks, teams underperformed their expected goals in 24 instances—double the rate from last season's opening 50 games. The top player at each club has collectively underperformed by 6.8 goals, accounting for nearly 40% of the division's shortfall. Examples include Everton's Thierno Barry, who now accounts for 49.4% of his team's expected goals (up from 17.7% previously) but has scored only twice from chances valued at 3.5 xG.
- Premier League teams are underperforming expected goals, creating a record number of draws.
- Top players concentrating chances but collectively underperforming by 6.8 goals.
- Everton's Thierno Barry exemplifies the trend, taking more chances yet scoring fewer.
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Expected goals, or xG, measures how many goals a team should have scored based on the quality and number of chances created. This season, Premier League teams are scoring considerably fewer goals than this statistic predicts they should, across nearly the entire division.
This widespread underperformance matters because of its scale and consequences. More teams are falling short of their expected goals than in recent seasons, contributing to a record number of drawn matches as teams frequently fail to convert the chances they have created.
The problem is most pronounced among elite attacking players, who are now taking a larger share of their team's chances but have not improved their scoring accordingly. Their underperformance accounts for nearly 40% of the division's total goal shortfall, showing the finishing problem is sharpest where teams most depend on individual players.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The evidence of systematic underperformance is genuinely striking and demands explanation. The rate of underperformance has doubled compared to last season's opening 50 games, the shortfall is concentrated among the division's most prolific chance creators, and draw rates have reached record levels across 14 clubs. This pattern suggests something real has shifted—whether in defensive organisation, goalkeeper performance, mentality under pressure, or tactical approaches—rather than mere random fluctuation.
The case against
Five weeks represents an extremely small sample prone to significant variance, and expected goals metrics themselves contain inherent estimation error that makes fine comparisons unreliable at this scale. Finishing efficiency is notoriously streaky across seasons, with overperformance in some years naturally giving way to underperformance in others. Selective comparison to last season's opening games risks cherry-picking, and regression toward historical norms is the most likely outcome as the season progresses.
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