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Treasury to assess economic effects of closer UK-EU ties
The Treasury is reportedly expected to assess the potential economic effects of different options for closer UK relations with the EU, as Andy Burnham seeks to reopen debate about Brexit. Critics say the exercise could revive the referendum-era “Project Fear” approach, while supporters of closer ties argue that greater trade with Europe could help growth.
The article recalls that the Treasury’s 2016 forecasts warned of recession, falling house prices and rising unemployment; a later review found the short-term scenarios were not entirely accurate, though the pound did fall. Prime Minister Burnham has said a food and farming deal could eventually add 0.4 per cent to GDP, or £12 billion a year, but its supporting analysis has not yet been published. The Treasury says it has not been asked to prepare a new assessment and that the deal’s analysis will be released in due course.
In short
- The Treasury may assess economic options for closer UK-EU ties.
- Critics warn the exercise could echo 2016’s Project Fear.
- The claimed £12 billion annual GDP gain has not been substantiated publicly.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A careful Treasury assessment could give the public a clearer account of how closer UK-EU arrangements might affect trade, growth and jobs, helping policymakers compare options on evidence rather than slogans. Supporters argue that reducing barriers, especially in food and farming, could increase trade and contribute to economic growth; publishing the assumptions would allow those claims to be scrutinised.
The case against
Critics can reasonably worry that forecasts may present uncertain outcomes with more confidence than the evidence supports, as some of the Treasury’s 2016 short-term scenarios did not fully materialise. If a new assessment is used to revive referendum-era warnings or promote a preferred policy before its analysis is public, it could undermine trust; any projections should therefore be transparent about uncertainty and limits.
Read the full article at the source →
Originally published by Daily Mail as “The return of Project Fear: Treasury to outline PM’s Brexit reset plan with Brussels in echo of Remain’s scare tactics”.