Washington has tightened restrictions on foreign-made robotics and imposed new tariffs on imported drones, citing national security, but analysts say the measures cannot offset China's dominant manufacturing scale in these industries. The moves extend an existing framework, the FCC's Covered List, from telecoms and surveillance equipment into drones and now advanced robotic systems, reflecting a broader US push to limit strategically important foreign technology. Rather than a clean split between the two countries, experts expect a more fragmented global market, with Chinese firms expanding into other regions while US and allied manufacturers focus on markets where security requirements are paramount.

Drone tariffs take effect in September, with further levies on components following in 2027. China's advantage is stark in humanoid robotics: global shipments reached 22,000 units in the first half of 2026, and the five largest manufacturers by shipments—AgiBot, Unitree, Galbot, UBTECH and Leju Robotics, all Chinese—accounted for 86% of that total, according to Counterpoint Research. Analysts note China's cost edge stems from deep manufacturing supply chains, in-house component production and high volumes that generate data to further improve technology, with one investor warning that "you cannot sanction your way around a cost curve."