Thune weighs nightmare scenario for GOP as Democrats threaten to flip House
John Thune said he does not expect Democrats to win the House, but acknowledged that a Democratic majority would create a different working dynamic in Congress. If that happens, the Senate Republican leader would likely need to negotiate with House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, despite their clashes over spending and other legislation.
Republicans have held the House since 2022 and the Senate since 2024, but forecasts suggest the House race is especially uncertain, with many competitive seats. Seven Senate races are rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. A previous split Congress, from 2023 to early 2025, passed 106 laws; the current Congress has passed 121, including major spending and housing measures.
In short
- Thune expects Republicans to retain both chambers.
- The House outlook is more uncertain than the Senate race.
- A Democratic House would put Thune and Jeffries at the negotiating table.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A Democratic House majority could provide a check on unified Republican control and require legislation to reflect a broader range of voters’ priorities. Supporters may argue that negotiation between Thune and Jeffries could produce more durable compromises, particularly on spending, even if the parties disagree sharply.
The case against
A change in House control could make it harder to pass budgets and other legislation, especially where the parties’ spending priorities conflict. Critics may argue that divided control encourages stalemate and short-term bargaining, slowing action even on measures that might otherwise attract support.