Senate Majority Leader John Thune has warned that Republicans could lose control of the Senate in November's midterms, offering a notably more pessimistic outlook than House Speaker Mike Johnson, who insists his chamber will "defy history" and remain under GOP control. The split highlights growing anxiety within the Republican Party as it heads into a difficult midterm cycle, with voter frustration mounting over the cost of living and the Trump administration's handling of Iran.

Thune told KELO-TV he was "a realist" who would not sugarcoat a "competitive environment", while Johnson told reporters Republicans would hold the House majority in 63 days' time. A new Daily Mail/JL Partners poll found over four in ten 2024 Trump voters feel he is not doing enough on inflation, and 49 percent of all voters disapproved of his military action against Iran. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, meaning Democrats need just four seats to flip control, including at least two in states Trump won by double digits, with Thune singling out Texas as a must-win contest against Democrat James Talarico. In the House, Republicans hold a slim 218-212 edge with one independent and four vacancies, leaving Democrats needing five to six seats for a majority.