Thune warns Republicans could lose Senate in November midterms
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has warned that Republicans could lose control of the Senate in November's midterms, offering a notably more pessimistic outlook than House Speaker Mike Johnson, who insists his chamber will "defy history" and remain under GOP control. The split highlights growing anxiety within the Republican Party as it heads into a difficult midterm cycle, with voter frustration mounting over the cost of living and the Trump administration's handling of Iran.
Thune told KELO-TV he was "a realist" who would not sugarcoat a "competitive environment", while Johnson told reporters Republicans would hold the House majority in 63 days' time. A new Daily Mail/JL Partners poll found over four in ten 2024 Trump voters feel he is not doing enough on inflation, and 49 percent of all voters disapproved of his military action against Iran. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, meaning Democrats need just four seats to flip control, including at least two in states Trump won by double digits, with Thune singling out Texas as a must-win contest against Democrat James Talarico. In the House, Republicans hold a slim 218-212 edge with one independent and four vacancies, leaving Democrats needing five to six seats for a majority.
In short
- Thune warns GOP Senate majority is at real risk in midterms
- Contrasts with Speaker Johnson's confident "we'll hold the House" stance
- Poll shows voter unease over cost of living and Iran strikes
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Thune’s warning reflects the risk that voter frustration over living costs and the Iran operation, combined with Republicans’ narrow majorities, could cost the party control of Congress. A realist assessment may help Republicans focus resources on vulnerable contests such as Texas and prepare for a genuinely competitive midterm.
The case against
Johnson’s confidence rests on the possibility that Republicans can retain support despite difficult conditions, as midterm outcomes depend on the candidates, campaigns and issues in individual races as well as national sentiment. Publicly predicting defeat could also weaken party morale and fundraising before voters have made their choice.
Explained simply
The US Congress has two chambers: the Senate and the House of Representatives. Midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term, and voters choose all House members and about a third of senators. The party that controls each chamber has influence over which laws are considered and can scrutinise the president’s administration.
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers. Senate seats are elected state by state, so the contests involve candidates such as Republican John Cornyn and Democrat James Talarico in Texas; House seats are decided in smaller districts. Cost-of-living concerns and views on the administration’s policies can affect how voters judge Republican candidates.
A change in control would shape the balance of power in Congress for the rest of the president’s term. Democrats would need to win enough seats to take a majority in a chamber, while Republicans will try to defend theirs.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Top Republican warns GOP could lose Senate as gulf with swaggering Speaker widens”.