Trump ‘in serious trouble’ in his own heartland as Republicans brace for midterm wipeout
New polling from RealClearPolitics shows Republican candidates trailing Democrats in eight key Senate battlegrounds, fuelling concern that President Donald Trump's party could face a heavy defeat in November's midterm elections. Republicans already faced an uphill fight to retain the House due to the historical disadvantage of holding the White House during a first-term midterm, and the latest figures suggest the Senate is now also at risk, even though Trump retains strong sway over the party through his endorsement record.
Republicans currently trail Democrats by 8 points in North Carolina, 7.5 in Georgia, 2.6 in Ohio, 2.3 in Maine, 2 in Alaska, 2 in New Hampshire, 1.9 in Texas and 1.8 in Michigan, though only the Georgia and North Carolina gaps exceed the typical margin of error. Trump has endorsed 270 candidates this cycle, with 261 winning their primaries (96.7%), though several high-profile picks have lost, including Cory Mills, Catalina Lauf and Megan Degenfelder. Analysts note that Senate polling has historically overstated Democratic margins by an average of 3.7 points, and Republicans argue public surveys may again be underestimating their support. Commentators also point to Trump's absence from the ballot and growing discontent among Midwest farmers as factors that could dampen Republican turnout.
In short
- GOP trails Democrats in eight Senate battleground states, new polling shows
- Trump's endorsement record remains strong despite some notable primary losses
- Analysts note polls have historically overstated Democratic margins in past cycles
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The polling gives Democrats a credible path to Senate gains: Republicans trail in all eight listed battlegrounds, with larger gaps in North Carolina and Georgia, while the party already faces the usual midterm headwinds of defending Congress under a first-term president. Trump’s strong influence over Republican primaries may also be less useful when he is not on the ballot, and discontent among Midwest farmers could weaken turnout.
The case against
The figures do not establish that Republicans are headed for defeat: only two of the eight reported gaps exceed the typical margin of error, and Senate polls have historically overstated Democratic margins. Republicans can reasonably argue that surveys may again be undercounting their support, while Trump’s high primary endorsement success suggests he retains influence that could help mobilise the party even without appearing on the ballot.
Explained simply
US midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate, which can change which party controls Congress and how easily the president can pass laws.
The Republican Party is Donald Trump’s party, and his support can influence which candidates win its internal contests, known as primaries. Senate contests are decided state by state, so a handful of closely fought races can determine which party holds the chamber.
Polls estimate how voters might choose, but they can be wrong, and past surveys have sometimes shown Democrats doing better than they ultimately did in Senate races. Midterms also tend to be difficult for the party holding the presidency, in part because the president is not on the ballot and turnout can differ from a presidential election.
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