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Trump is wounded but not finished – that’s a problem for Burnham
Donald Trump’s defeat in the US midterms has weakened his position at home, but may give him greater freedom to pursue his priorities abroad. The article argues that Andy Burnham and the UK government should not assume a weakened president will be less forceful, as Trump could use foreign policy to shape his legacy and test executive powers.
The Democrats won both chambers of Congress, while high petrol prices weighed on Republican candidates. The author suggests Trump may seek settlements in Ukraine and Iran, potentially using troop movements or withholding material, while JD Vance and Marco Rubio position themselves for the party’s future. It criticises Burnham for presenting the result as support for his own agenda, arguing Britain should prioritise defence and intelligence spending and maintain working ties with whoever occupies the White House.
In short
- Midterm losses weaken Trump at home but leave him room to act abroad.
- The article warns Britain to prepare for a more assertive president.
- It urges Burnham to put national interests ahead of party politics.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A weakened president may face fewer domestic constraints and turn to foreign policy to pursue priorities, shape his legacy or demonstrate executive power. Britain should therefore avoid assuming Trump will become less forceful, invest in defence and intelligence, and sustain practical ties with Washington while planning for uncertainty.
The case against
A midterm defeat and Democratic control of Congress can constrain Trump politically and make ambitious foreign-policy action harder, while claims about how he might use troop movements or withhold support remain speculative. Burnham can reasonably present the result as relevant to his own political argument, and Britain can debate spending priorities without treating one election as proof that it must follow a particular course.