Cook shifts 19 House race ratings towards Democrats ahead of midterms
The Cook Political Report has shifted 19 House race ratings towards Democrats, adding to signs that Republicans may struggle to retain control of the chamber in the midterm elections. Democrats are now favoured in 220 seats, above the 218 needed for a majority, while Republicans are favoured in 198 and 17 races remain toss-ups.
Six districts moved from toss-up to lean Democrat, including four held by Republicans, creating potential pickup opportunities. Cook projects Democrats could gain 12 to 22 seats. The Congressional Leadership Fund has cancelled planned advertising in four districts and increased spending in 16 others; the four withdrawn races had accounted for $13.3 million in advertising through 13 October.
In short
- Democrats are favoured in 220 House seats, above the 218 needed for a majority.
- Six toss-up races shifted to lean Democrat.
- A Republican-aligned group redirected advertising from four races to 16 others.
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The case for
The ratings shift and projected gains suggest Democrats have a credible path to a House majority, giving voters an opportunity to change the chamber’s direction if they are dissatisfied with Republican leadership or policies. Supporters may also see the advertising changes as evidence that campaigns are responding to a less favourable map for Republicans.
The case against
The ratings are forecasts, not results, and 17 races remain toss-ups, so the apparent Democratic advantage could narrow or reverse as campaigning continues. Republicans can argue that shifting spending away from some districts is a strategic response to limited resources, while continued investment elsewhere reflects viable paths to retaining the majority.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Trump’s House nightmare deepens as famed election guru pushes 19 more races towards Democrats”.