Polls show Democrats leading Senate races in four Republican-held states
A CNN/SSRS poll found Democratic candidates leading in Senate races in Texas, Kansas, Maine and Michigan, raising concerns for Republicans seeking to retain control of the US Senate. The findings come as Donald Trump’s job disapproval remains high in these states, though polls can be wrong: the final CNN/SSRS poll before the 2024 presidential election overstated Democratic support in several states.
In Maine, Troy Jackson leads incumbent Susan Collins by 49% to 45%; in Kansas, Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall by the same margin. Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of Mike Rogers in Michigan by 49% to 42%, while James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas by 49% to 43%. Trump’s disapproval ranges from 45% in Kansas to 61% in Maine; Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats to take Senate control, and Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are rated toss-ups.
In short
- Democrats lead in four Senate polls.
- Texas and Kansas races are tied to Trump’s standing.
- Democrats need four seat gains to control the Senate.
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The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The poll leads suggest voters in several Republican-held states may be open to change, giving Democrats a credible chance to contest seats that could determine Senate control. High disapproval of President Trump may be weighing on Republican candidates, while the close margins make the races competitive rather than settled.
The case against
A single set of polls is an uncertain guide to election outcomes, and the 2024 CNN/SSRS poll overstated Democratic support in several states. The reported leads are narrow in Maine and Kansas, and Republican candidates could retain those seats if polling error, turnout or later shifts in opinion favour them.
Explained simply
The US Senate is one of two chambers of Congress, alongside the House of Representatives. Each state elects two senators to six-year terms, and control of the chamber affects which legislation can advance and whether presidential appointments are confirmed.
The two main parties are the Democrats and Republicans. Republicans currently control the Senate, so Democrats would need to win several seats held by Republicans to take control; the races named here are among those being watched. Candidates include sitting senators seeking re-election and challengers from the other party.
Polls ask a sample of voters how they might vote, but they are estimates rather than results and can be inaccurate. A candidate’s lead in a poll does not guarantee victory, and polling errors in past elections are one reason to treat such figures cautiously.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Trump’s Senate majority under threat as stunning new poll shows Democrats leading in Texas and Republicans in danger in Kansas”.