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UK Says AI-Powered Ransomware Attack on Critical Infrastructure ‘Highly Likely’ by 2028
The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre says an AI-powered ransomware attack on critical national infrastructure is “highly likely” by 2028. It warns that AI could help hostile actors carry out attacks at greater scale and speed, with disruption potentially affecting essential services and businesses.
NCSC chief executive Richard Horne said the main risk is that AI will expose and exploit longstanding security weaknesses, rather than create entirely new attack methods. He urged organisations to invest in technology security, limit unnecessary internet connections and treat Cyber Essentials as a starting point. The government has announced £60 million for a Cyber Shield, £70 million for a vulnerability centre, and a new AI Cyber Security Centre of Excellence. Evidence of criminal use of AI so far is mixed: Google reported an AI-assisted zero-day attack, while a study of more than 90,000 cybercrime forum posts found most use focused on spam and phishing.
In short
- UK officials say AI-powered ransomware against critical infrastructure is highly likely by 2028.
- AI could help attackers exploit old vulnerabilities at much greater scale.
- The government has committed £130 million to cyber security initiatives.
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The case for
The warning merits serious attention because AI could help attackers find and exploit existing security weaknesses faster and at greater scale, raising the risk to essential services. Preparing in advance through stronger security and public investment may reduce the chance and impact of an attack, even while evidence of current AI-enabled cybercrime remains limited.
The case against
A forecast about what is “highly likely” by 2028 is uncertain, and evidence so far suggests much criminal use of AI is still focused on familiar activities such as spam and phishing. Treating the risk as imminent could divert money and attention from known vulnerabilities or other security priorities, so measures and public claims should be proportionate to the evidence.
Explained simply
Critical national infrastructure refers to the systems and organisations people rely on for essential services, such as energy, water, transport and healthcare. Ransomware is malicious software that locks or steals data and demands payment; an attack on these services could disrupt organisations and the people who depend on them.
The National Cyber Security Centre is the UK’s authority for helping protect against cyber threats. Its chief executive, Richard Horne, says artificial intelligence could help attackers find and exploit existing security weaknesses more quickly or at greater scale. Reports of criminals using AI are mixed, and many known uses have involved scams such as spam and phishing.
The concern matters because disruption to essential services can affect the wider public as well as individual organisations. The government and businesses are considering how to strengthen defences, including by fixing software weaknesses and limiting unnecessary connections to the internet.
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