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Ukraine negotiator: ‘We have the upper hand’
Sergiy Kyslytsya, a senior aide to President Zelenskyy and one of Ukraine's key negotiators, has told NPR that Ukraine currently holds the advantage in its war with Russia, describing it as "a war of the 21st century" in which long-range drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are causing fuel shortages and eroding Moscow's military capacity. He said Russia is no longer making meaningful battlefield gains, a claim that carries weight for how peace talks might eventually be shaped, since it suggests Kyiv has little incentive to accept unfavourable terms.
Formal US-mediated negotiations have stalled since early 2026 as the Trump administration's attention shifted to Iran, though Kyslytsya said informal dialogue with American and occasional Russian officials remains "active and ongoing". Ukraine is pushing to freeze the front line where it currently stands without recognising Russian control of occupied territory, rejecting Moscow's "3+2" proposal that would require Kyiv to cede five regions. Russia, which wants full control of Donetsk and claims it could seize it within two to three months, is dismissed by Kyslytsya as overly optimistic; he suggested Putin may eventually be forced back to the table by military pressure, raising the possibility of a Trump-Putin summit later this year.
In short
- Ukrainian negotiator says Kyiv now holds the upper hand militarily
- Drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are straining Moscow's war effort
- Peace talks stalled but informal dialogue continues; summit possible this year
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Ukraine maintains that it currently possesses military momentum, with drone strikes degrading Russian capacity and halting offensive gains. Given this advantage, accepting Moscow's territorial demands would squander leverage and reward aggression through conquest—a principle with profound implications for international law and deterrence. Western support, whilst substantial, remains conditional and uncertain; Kyiv therefore has strong incentive to secure the most favourable settlement achievable now, before circumstances shift.
The case against
Whilst Ukraine may hold tactical advantages, the war's human toll—countless deaths, displaced millions, devastated infrastructure—demands serious movement toward peace even at significant cost. Russia's vast economic and demographic resources mean it can sustain attrition indefinitely, and Western commitment, as recent American pivot suggests, cannot be guaranteed permanently. A negotiated settlement freezing current lines, though painful, may represent the realistic maximum outcome; holding out risks losing hard-won gains if support weakens or circumstances reverse.
Explained simply
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, triggering a conflict that has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties and widespread destruction. It represents Europe's largest military conflict in recent decades.
Ukraine seeks to restore its territory and full sovereignty, whilst Russia demands recognition of territories it claims to control. The United States has worked to mediate peace talks between the sides, but negotiations have repeatedly broken down over disagreements about what a settlement would entail.
Military circumstances influence what terms either side might accept. If one side believes it can achieve its objectives through continued fighting, it has little incentive to negotiate. This is why assessments of military advantage matter for understanding when and how peace talks might progress.
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