US inflation rises more than expected ahead of midterm elections
US inflation rose faster than expected in the year to September, increasing to 3.7% from 3.4% in August. The figures arrive ahead of next month’s midterm elections, where cost of living pressures are a major concern, and come as higher energy costs add to price rises.
Gasoline prices rose 34.2% over the year and 9.1% in September alone, accounting for more than half of that month’s inflation increase. Overall energy inflation was 20.4%, while food prices were flat in September and up 2.5% over the year; core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.6%. The Federal Reserve is watching for energy costs to spread to other prices, while research found US businesses absorbed nearly 90% of the cost of added tariffs.
- US inflation reached 3.7% in September.
- Higher gasoline prices drove much of the rise.
- Food inflation remained subdued as the Fed watches for wider effects.
New here? Start with this
Inflation measures how quickly prices are rising across the economy. In the US, the consumer price index tracks the cost of a basket of goods and services, while “core” inflation leaves out food and energy because their prices can move sharply.
The Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, monitors inflation as it sets interest rates, which affect borrowing costs and spending. Higher fuel prices can also raise the cost of transporting goods, potentially putting pressure on other prices.
The figures come before midterm elections, when voters choose members of Congress and some state officials. The cost of living is a prominent concern for voters, and the impact of tariffs on businesses and prices is also part of the wider debate.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The rise in inflation, particularly the sharp increase in petrol prices, strengthens the case that cost of living pressures remain serious and need to be a priority for voters and policymakers. Businesses may absorb much of the added tariff costs so far, but the Federal Reserve’s concern that higher energy costs could spread to other prices gives reason to watch for broader pressure.
The case against
The figures also support caution about treating this as evidence of a general price surge: food prices were flat for the month, and core inflation was lower than the headline rate. Much of September’s increase came from petrol, while research suggests businesses have absorbed nearly 90% of added tariff costs, so the data do not by themselves establish that tariffs or broad-based inflation are driving the rise.