US wheat farmers face an uncertain growing season despite wheat prices reaching their highest level in three years. Drought, erratic weather, record diesel costs and geopolitical disruption are undermining profits, while damaged harvests and blocked exports could push up prices for millers, bakers, restaurants and consumers.

Future prices for bread wheat have risen 39%, but one Kansas farmer lost his entire spring crop and is unsure how much to plant. Drought has reduced supplies in the US, Europe and Australia, while Russia’s attacks on Black Sea ports have disrupted a region responsible for about one-third of global wheat trade. A possible super El Niño could worsen conditions, although it may bring beneficial rain to the southern Great Plains; US wheat acreage may rise by roughly 10% this winter, despite being at its lowest harvested level since 1877.