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What Tarik Skubal and other top 30-plus available players will command in MLB free agency
The article predicts the contracts of more than 30 available MLB free agents, ranked by projected annual salary, and argues that this is a shallow market dominated by one exceptional player. Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young winner, is expected to command a deal worth several times more than any other free agent, potentially setting new records for a pitcher.
Skubal is 29 and has pitched at least 590 innings, including the postseason, since 2024, matching Cristopher Sánchez. The article forecasts a seven-year, $382.5 million contract, with the Mets and Dodgers seen as likely bidders; the Angels and Padres could also spend heavily, particularly if a possible salary cap changes the market. It also projects $90 million over three years, with an opt-out, for a Padres player who declined $58 million over two years.
In short
- Skubal could set pitching contract records.
- The forecast is $382.5 million over seven years.
- A thin market may intensify competition for top players.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A shallow free-agent market and Skubal’s exceptional record could justify a landmark contract: elite starting pitching is scarce, and a team may reasonably pay a premium for a player who can anchor its rotation and improve its chances of contending. If several wealthy clubs compete, the resulting price would reflect their assessment of his value and the risks they are willing to take.
The case against
A deal of this size would commit a great deal of a club’s resources to one player, especially a pitcher whose workload brings injury risk and whose performance may change over a long contract. In a market with few comparable alternatives, headline projections can also overstate what teams should pay; clubs may prefer to spread the money across more players and reduce the risk to their roster.