Why neither Russia nor Ukraine can turn the tide of the war — and how they still pull off successful offensives like Kyiv’s Operation Vivaldi

Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi pushed Russian forces back from positions west of the Chornyi Zherebets River, showing that local offensives can succeed even while the wider war remains largely positional. The article argues that the advance did not overturn the stalemate: both armies still rely on gradual pressure and small assault groups, with no sign of large-scale manoeuvre warfare.

Preparations for the operation reportedly began in May, with Ukrainian forces gradually disrupting Russian supply lines and weakening reconnaissance and strike capabilities before attacking infantry strongpoints. They advanced around 10–20 kilometres over several months, but Russian fire and drone strikes halted them at the river. The gains were limited in depth but disrupted Russian positions; Kyiv’s claims about thwarting a broader Russian plan to encircle forces in the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk area are presented with caution.