Will Burnham now go for an early election? New mega-poll gives Labour a 56-seat Commons majority – with Reform third behind the Tories
A new Electoral Calculus projection suggests Labour would win a 56-seat Commons majority if an election were held now, after a sharp rise in support under Andy Burnham. The findings have prompted speculation that the Prime Minister could call an early election, although Burnham has said he intends to wait until 2029.
The poll projects Labour winning 353 seats, compared with 90 for the Conservatives and 81 for Reform UK; the Liberal Democrats are forecast to take 70, the SNP 28 and the Greens four. Labour’s projected vote share is 28 per cent, up from 17 per cent in April, while Reform is on 21 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent. The MRP accounts for possible tactical voting and is based on surveys of 6,699 adults conducted from 25 September to 2 October.
- Labour is projected to win 353 seats and a 56-seat majority.
- Reform is forecast to finish behind the Conservatives.
- The polling is based on 6,699 adults surveyed in late September and early October.
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The House of Commons is the elected chamber of the UK Parliament, and the party with the most seats usually forms the government. A majority means having more than half the seats, making it easier for a government to pass laws. Election projections estimate how seats might be shared if voting happened now; they are not a count of votes or a guarantee of the result.
Andy Burnham is the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, while the Prime Minister leads the national government. An early election would be held before the next one is due, which is currently expected by 2029. Electoral Calculus uses a method called MRP to estimate results in each constituency, including how tactical voting might affect them.
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The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A large projected majority could give the government a stronger mandate to pursue its programme while Labour support is relatively high. Calling an early election might also settle uncertainty over the government’s prospects and let voters judge its direction sooner.
The case against
A poll is only a snapshot, and seat projections can shift substantially before an election; the reported figures do not guarantee a majority at the ballot box. Waiting until 2029 would allow the government to focus on governing and give voters a fuller record to assess, rather than calling an election on the strength of a temporary lead.