Europe is heading towards winter with gas storage at its lowest late-August level for 13 years, raising concerns about sharper price swings if demand rises during cold or low-wind periods. While physical shortages are not currently expected, the situation matters particularly for the UK because it has limited storage capacity and relies heavily on imported gas.

EU gas stores were 63% full in the final week of August, compared with a recent late-August average of 80%, and may begin winter about a fifth below the five-year average. Disrupted Gulf exports following the US-Israel war on Iran, a cold end to winter and greater gas-fired power generation during summer heatwaves have slowed replenishment; benchmark prices have exceeded €68/MWh, with analysts warning they could surpass €100/MWh without renewed Middle Eastern supplies.