With just a few primary elections to go, the competitive Senate map keeps shifting

With just a handful of primary contests left before November, the battle for control of the US Senate remains fluid, and Democrats need a net gain of four Republican-held seats to take the majority. Republicans expect to retain control but concede the margin could narrow, with Democrats potentially picking up between one and three seats depending on how several toss-up races break, shaped by Donald Trump's low approval ratings and economic frustration over tariffs and the Iran war.

North Carolina is seen as Democrats' best pick-up opportunity, with former governor Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley in polling and fundraising. Several other races remain genuine toss-ups, including Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is seeking a rematch against appointed incumbent Jon Husted, Maine, where Troy Jackson now challenges Susan Collins after replacing the original Democratic nominee, Michigan's open-seat primary between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed, and Alaska, complicated by two candidates both named Dan Sullivan appearing on the ranked-choice ballot. Democrats are also defending Jon Ossoff's seat in Georgia and eyeing longer-shot opportunities in New Hampshire, Iowa and even Texas, where Ken Paxton's record-expensive primary win over John Cornyn has raised questions about Republican vulnerability in a traditionally safe state.