UN says rapid emissions cuts could limit climate overshoot to 1.7C

The UN Environment Programme says global emissions must fall sharply over the next four years to limit how far the world overshoots the 1.5C climate target. It says the window to stay within that limit has closed, but keeping the overshoot brief could reduce the severity of future warming.

Emissions in 2025 were broadly similar to the previous year, though analysts say it is too soon to call this a peak. UNEP estimates cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2045 could give a good chance of limiting warming to 1.7C; current policies point to 2.8C, while updated national pledges, even if met, imply 2.6C. The report also warns that every five years of emissions at current levels adds 0.1C to projected warming.