New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas faces Republican dynasty in sleeper race to determine Senate control
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New Hampshire's Senate race is now officially set, with Republican John E. Sununu confirmed as the GOP nominee after winning Tuesday night's primary against a field that included Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and Trump's ex-ambassador to New Zealand. Sununu will face Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas, who secured his party's nomination after fending off four rivals, for the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. The contest matters because Republicans have not held this Senate seat in 16 years, yet the race is now shaping up as a genuine toss-up that could help offset expected GOP losses elsewhere as Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the chamber.
Polling from the University of New Hampshire shows Pappas and Sununu essentially tied within the margin of error, with many voters still undecided, though the Cook Political Report still rates the seat as leaning Democratic. Pappas, who defeated Karoline Leavitt (later Trump's White House Press Secretary) in 2022, must now win over supporters of primary rival Karishma Manzur, who was backed by the Democratic Socialists of America. Sununu benefits from a well-known political dynasty in the state: his father John H. Sununu was governor and White House Chief of Staff, his brother Chris Sununu served as governor until January 2025, and he himself previously served in the US House and Senate. Popular Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte's standing in the state adds further momentum for the GOP's hopes of a flip.
- Sununu officially becomes GOP Senate nominee, will face Democrat Pappas in November.
- Polls show the race essentially tied, despite Democrats holding the seat for 16 years.
- Sununu's political dynasty and Governor Ayotte's popularity boost Republican flip hopes.
New here? Start with this
New Hampshire is holding a US Senate election, and the seat is open because the current senator, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, is retiring after several terms. The Republican candidate is John E. Sununu, who has already served in both the US House and Senate and comes from a well-known political family in the state, while the Democratic candidate is sitting Congressman Chris Pappas. Both have now secured their party's nomination through separate primary contests.
The race matters nationally because control of the Senate is at stake, and Democrats need to gain several seats to take the majority. Republicans have not held this particular New Hampshire seat for many years, so a Sununu win would count as a notable pickup, even as polling suggests the contest is close and could go either way.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters of a Sununu win argue that New Hampshire voters have long rewarded pragmatic, fiscally conservative Republicans, and that his family's decades of statewide service reflect genuine trust rather than mere name recognition. They point to his own prior experience in the US House and Senate as evidence he understands the institution, and see popular Governor Kelly Ayotte's standing as a sign the state is comfortable with Republican leadership. With control of the Senate potentially hinging on just a handful of seats, they contend that a moderate, experienced figure like Sununu offers Republicans a realistic chance to hold a working majority and check what they view as an overreaching progressive agenda.
The case against
Supporters of a Pappas win argue that he has already proven he can win tough, closely fought contests, having defeated a strong Republican challenger in 2022, and that his record as a pragmatic, constituent-focused representative suits New Hampshire's independent-minded electorate. They see the Sununu name as reflecting the concentration of political power in one family rather than fresh representation, and worry that ceding this seat would hand Republicans a Senate majority less inclined to compromise. For them, retaining the seat that Jeanne Shaheen has held for 16 years preserves continuity and a check on one-party control in Washington, values they consider more important than any single candidate's biography.
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