Economists from UC Berkeley and the London School of Economics have published research estimating that AI will deliver a 32.6% permanent productivity boost for software engineers, based on analysis of stock market movements since ChatGPT's launch in November 2022. This projection is significant because it suggests investors are already pricing substantial AI-driven gains into company valuations, offering a forward-looking measure of AI's economic impact before its full effects have materialised.

The researchers measured company stock returns in response to AI news and examined whether responses varied based on each firm's software engineering payroll proportion. Their analysis indicates a corresponding estimated 3.61% permanent increase in GDP level. Whilst the 32.6% figure aligns with other research showing 21-56% productivity acceleration on individual tasks, the economists cautioned that market expectations can prove overly optimistic or pessimistic, and that practical bottlenecks such as code review backlogs may constrain actual productivity gains.