Labour faces overseeing worst Parliament for living standards in modern times with think-tank warning families could be up to £770 worse off by 2029
A Joseph Rowntree Foundation report warns that UK family incomes could fall in real terms during the current Parliament, potentially making it the worst period for living standards in records dating back to the 1960s. The forecast adds pressure on the Government ahead of the Chancellor’s first Budget, as higher borrowing costs and inflation linked to turmoil in the Middle East may constrain choices on tax and spending.
The report’s projections put incomes in 2029-30 between £440 and £770 below their level when Labour was elected, depending on the economic scenario. It estimates incomes could be £180 lower in 2027-28 than this year, with a £440 shortfall under adverse conditions; poorer households are expected to be hit hardest by energy and housing costs. The charity proposed energy support, rent controls, higher benefits and employment rights, alongside tax changes, while its comparison suggests incomes might instead have risen by £5,000 if past typical growth had continued.
- Family incomes could be £440 to £770 lower by 2029-30.
- The poorest households face the greatest pressure from essential costs.
- The charity urged the Government to act on bills, housing and benefits.
New here? Start with this
A charity called the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has warned that household incomes could fall over the next few years, leaving families worse off financially than they are today. This would be the worst period for living standards in records going back to the 1960s.
The poorest families would be hit hardest, particularly through rising energy and housing costs that take up a larger share of their budgets. These pressures are expected to squeeze household finances most severely during this period.
The warning adds pressure on the Labour Government as it prepares its Budget. Higher borrowing costs and international economic challenges are constraining the Government's options for spending increases or tax cuts.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation projects a severe living standards crisis: potential decline of £440-£770 per family, the worst in 60 years. This is neither inevitable nor acceptable; the Government has specific policy tools including energy support, rent controls, enhanced benefits and employment rights. The comparison to what growth might have been shows that outcomes reflect political choices. Protecting household finances, especially for poorer families facing energy and housing pressures, must be paramount.
The case against
Long-term economic forecasts are inherently uncertain; this report's range illustrates that variability. The Government inherited severe global challenges including inflation, energy crises and geopolitical instability that constrain policy options. Whilst some interventions are worthwhile, others like rent controls carry complex trade-offs requiring careful analysis. Rather than blame the Government for declines linked to global forces, the question is whether it's managing inherited difficulties responsibly.