Half of US voters say Trump is damaging Republican midterm prospects
Nearly half of American voters now believe President Trump is damaging Republican prospects in the upcoming midterms, according to a new poll. This finding is significant given Trump's active campaign efforts on behalf of GOP candidates, as voters increasingly view him as a liability rather than an asset for his own party.
A Daily Mail/YouGov poll of 1,053 voters conducted October 1-5 found that 49% believe Trump is hurting Republican chances, compared to only 20% who think he is helping. The concern is particularly acute among independents, with 54% saying he is damaging GOP prospects, and even 18% of Republicans themselves agree that Trump is hurting the party's chances. Overall, 40% of voters would hold Trump primarily responsible for Republican losses in November.
- Nearly half of voters think Trump is damaging Republican midterm chances
- 54% of independents believe he is hurting GOP prospects
- Only 20% of voters say Trump is helping Republican candidates
New here? Start with this
The US midterm elections are congressional elections held between presidential elections. The 2026 midterms in November determine which party controls Congress.
Trump is a prominent Republican political figure who has been actively campaigning for Republican candidates in these midterms. Candidate support from prominent politicians can influence voter behaviour and perceptions of candidates.
A prominent politician's campaign involvement can either strengthen or weaken their party's prospects, depending on how voters view that politician. Therefore, voter perceptions of Trump's campaign involvement are significant for understanding Republican prospects in November.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Those who contend Trump damages Republican prospects argue his polarising profile alienates crucial swing voters and suburban professionals, whilst his legal entanglements consume media attention needed for constructive party messaging. Even amongst Republicans themselves, doubts have grown about his electoral utility, with polling data suggesting stronger candidate performance when campaigning independently, indicating his net effect as a liability.
The case against
Those who view Trump as an electoral asset argue his committed base represents irreplaceable turnout machinery in competitive races, with his endorsements carrying proven weight amongst his supporters who form the party's foundation. The characterisation of Trump as a liability, they contend, reflects chiefly hostile media framing rather than demonstrated electoral damage, and his record of successful endorsements suggests his campaigning delivers tangible benefits that broader polling sentiment obscures.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Trump faces crushing midterms verdict as voters say he is hurting Republican chances”.