Tory revival hopes fuelled as they manage third place in Holborn by-election – while Restore eats into Reform vote
The Conservatives came third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election with 7.1 per cent of the vote, matching their performance at the 2024 general election. Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali won with a 3,000 majority, whilst the result offers signs of a potential revival for the party under new leader Kemi Badenoch, whose personal ratings have improved significantly.
Reform UK came fourth with 5.9 per cent of the vote, whilst the new Restore party took 2.5 per cent, suggesting it may be splitting the right-wing vote. However, electoral expert Sir John Curtice warned against overstating Labour's strength, noting that the Greens were unusually weak compared to spring and that the result does not indicate Labour can win a general election with an overall majority.
- Conservatives finished third in Holborn, maintaining 2024 support levels
- Restore party appears to be splitting Reform UK's right-wing vote
- Electoral experts warn the result doesn't signal Labour's general election dominance
New here? Start with this
A by-election is a special vote held to fill an empty seat in Parliament between general elections. The Holborn and St Pancras by-election took place after the Conservative Party appointed Kemi Badenoch as its new leader following the 2024 general election.
The Conservative Party now competes with Reform UK, which became a significant force in 2024, and Restore, a new right-leaning party. All three compete for similar voters on the right of British politics.
By-elections are important indicators of how political parties and movements are faring between general elections. They can show whether new leaders are gaining traction with voters and how the political landscape may be shifting ahead of the next general election.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The Conservative result demonstrates encouraging stabilisation under new leadership. Maintaining their 2024 general election vote share in a by-election environment typically hostile to recently-governing parties, whilst Kemi Badenoch's personal ratings rise substantially, suggests the party has arrested its decline and established real momentum. This foundation of retained voter support indicates genuine recovery is taking shape.
The case against
The result shows stagnation rather than revival. Third place at 7.1 per cent represents no improvement over 2024, despite months of new leadership and presumed renewal efforts. For a by-election where the opposition often gains ground, the Conservatives have merely held their baseline rather than grown their vote. Genuine recovery requires demonstrated progress in vote share, not merely unchanged performance.