Lichtman forecasts Democrats will take both chambers in 2026 midterms
Historian Allan Lichtman predicts Democrats will win control of both chambers of the US Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. The forecast matters because Republicans currently hold narrow majorities, and a Democratic gain would shift control of Congress.
Lichtman gives Democrats more than a 90 per cent chance of taking the House and a 67 per cent chance of winning the Senate, potentially reaching a 51-49 majority. He cites Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, a seven-to-11-point Democratic lead on the generic ballot, stronger Democratic enthusiasm and early voting trends; he also expects possible Senate gains in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
In short
- Lichtman predicts Democrats will take both chambers of Congress.
- He puts their Senate chances at 67 per cent.
- He points to polling, turnout and Trump’s low approval.
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The case for
Lichtman’s forecast reflects indicators that have often favoured the opposition party in midterm elections: Trump’s low approval ratings, a reported Democratic lead on the generic ballot and signs of stronger Democratic enthusiasm. If those trends persist, Democrats could make gains in competitive states and win control of both chambers, giving voters a Congress more likely to scrutinise the president’s agenda.
The case against
The forecast is uncertain because polls and early voting patterns can shift, and national enthusiasm does not necessarily translate into wins in individual states or Senate races. A narrow Republican majority could hold if candidates perform differently from the national trend, turnout changes, or local issues shape contests in places such as Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
Explained simply
The US Congress has two chambers: the House of Representatives, where seats are allocated by population, and the Senate, where each state elects two senators. Together, they pass federal laws, approve spending and oversee the government.
Midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term, when voters choose all House members and about a third of senators. Allan Lichtman is a historian known for making election forecasts; his predictions are not official results, and control of Congress depends on the candidates and races in each state.
Congressional control matters because the party with a majority has more influence over legislation, investigations and decisions on government funding. Narrow majorities can make that influence especially sensitive to changes in a small number of seats.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “America’s most accurate election guru gives final prediction on what will happen in the midterms”.