Does Reliance on China Undermine Iran’s Grand Strategy?

An analysis published on 3 November 2026 argues that Iran’s growing reliance on China is complicating its long-standing strategy of resisting US pressure while preserving political independence. China provides a vital market for Iranian oil under sanctions: it bought more than 80 per cent of Iran’s seaborne oil exports in 2025. The dependence is uneven, however. Iranian crude made up about 13 per cent of China’s seaborne oil imports, and Beijing has substantial trade with other Gulf states. China has made no formal security commitment to defend Iran.