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Luna’s narrow Florida lead signals trouble for Republicans in safe seat
Anna Paulina Luna was narrowly leading Democrat Leela Gray in Florida’s 13th Congressional District on Wednesday morning, leaving her re-election contest too close to call. The result is a setback for the Trump-endorsed Republican, whose previous victories were much wider, and may signal difficulty for Republicans in a state once considered safely red.
According to the Associated Press figures cited in the article, Luna led by less than one percentage point at 9.30am Eastern time, compared with winning margins of eight points in 2022 and nearly 10 in 2024. She credited door-knocking and said Democrats had outspent her by millions. Elsewhere in Florida, Democrats Jared Moskowitz and Kathy Castor held their seats; nationally, Democrats need to gain at least three House seats and four Senate seats to control those chambers.
In short
- Luna’s Florida race remained extremely close.
- Her lead was under one percentage point.
- Two Democratic incumbents also held their Florida seats.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Luna’s narrow lead may reflect a strong campaign: she credited door-knocking, and she said Democrats had spent millions more. A close result in one district, while the count was still underway, does not by itself show that Florida or other Republican-held seats are in trouble.
The case against
The sharp drop in Luna’s winning margin—from eight points in 2022 and nearly ten in 2024 to less than one point in the reported count—suggests that voters may be less supportive of her or Republicans than before. If the result reflects a broader shift in Florida, it could make seats previously seen as safely Republican more competitive.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Dire sign for Trump in once-solid red Florida after MAGA darling Anna Paulina Luna’s race remains too-close-to-call”.