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No amount of sliding in the polls can shake Kemi Badenoch’s self-belief – or alter her party’s direction | Andy Beckett
The article argues that Kemi Badenoch’s confidence has become a defining feature of her two years as Conservative leader, even as the party’s support has declined. It says the Tories have moved further right without rethinking their approach, raising questions about whether Badenoch’s certainty reflects conviction or overconfidence.
The Conservatives stood at 26% in a polling average when she took over and have since fallen to 21%; one forecast puts them on 128 seats at the next election. The article contrasts this with earlier periods of defeat, when the party reconsidered its direction, and says Badenoch’s Conservatives remain attached to familiar policies such as deregulation, tax cuts for the prosperous and lower welfare spending.
In short
- Conservative support has fallen from 26% to 21% under Badenoch.
- The article says the party has not fundamentally changed course.
- Its traditional policies remain central despite electoral weakness.
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The case for
Badenoch’s confidence could be seen as principled consistency: a leader should not abandon convictions simply because polling turns against her, and the Conservatives may need time to make their case. Supporters could argue that deregulation, tax cuts and lower welfare spending reflect a coherent view of growth and the state, while a clearer move to the right distinguishes the party from its rivals.
The case against
A sustained fall in support and a poor election forecast could indicate that the party’s approach is failing to persuade voters, making confidence look like complacency. Critics could argue that repeating familiar policies without serious reassessment leaves the Conservatives out of step with public concerns and risks prolonging their decline.