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Bets and Breakfast: Looking for winners in the NFL’s early game in Munich
The article recommends betting on the New England Patriots to beat the Detroit Lions in the NFL’s Munich game, arguing that the market may be overvaluing Detroit’s recent form. It says New England’s strong record after losses and the possibility of a tighter international game make the Patriots moneyline at +130 an appealing wager.
Detroit are 6-2 and have won four in a row, while New England are 5-4 after losing 45-27 to Green Bay, with Drake Maye throwing three interceptions. The Lions are favoured by 2.5 points, but the article notes that 95.85% of moneyline money at one major bookmaker is on Detroit, while the spread has moved from Lions -3 to -2.5. It also highlights New England’s 6-0 record in games after a loss since the start of last season, and suggests three player props: Hunter Henry, Maye and Mack Hollins to exceed their receiving or rushing yard lines.
In short
- The article backs New England to beat Detroit in Munich.
- Detroit are 6-2, but the spread has narrowed to -2.5.
- Three Patriots player props are also recommended.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Backing New England is defensible if Detroit’s winning streak has pushed the price beyond what the teams’ underlying chances justify. The Patriots’ strong record after losses suggests they may respond well to the Green Bay defeat, and a close game would make a Patriots moneyline at +130 attractive to bettors willing to accept the risk.
The case against
Detroit’s 6-2 record and four straight wins provide sound reasons to favour the Lions, while New England are coming off a heavy defeat in which Drake Maye threw three interceptions. The Lions remain the market favourite, and the Patriots’ past results after losses do not guarantee a repeat; bettors may reasonably see Detroit as the more reliable choice.