5 potential midterm Senate upsets

As Americans vote in the 3 November midterms, several Senate contests offer the possibility of results that would have seemed unlikely earlier in the campaign. The Hill reports that Decision Desk HQ rated Ohio, Iowa and Kansas as toss-ups on the eve of polling, while Texas, Maine and Alaska had moved just outside that category. Those ratings describe uncertain races, not election results. They also show why the contest for Senate control has widened beyond the states that initially drew the most attention.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate. That makes their prospects in Republican-held states especially consequential, although a close forecast does not guarantee an upset and turnout may change the picture. Decision Desk HQ’s 2 November model gave Democrats a 65 per cent chance of winning control and projected a narrow 52–48 majority. Its individual race estimates were close in Kansas, Iowa and Ohio, illustrating how a few state results could determine which party holds the chamber.