Abdul El-Sayed soars in Kalshi odds after Haley Stevens fallout 

Abdul El-Sayed’s chances of winning Michigan’s US Senate race rose to 78% on the Kalshi prediction market on 2 November, after briefly falling to 68% when Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, the previous day. El-Sayed had been priced at about 76% before the endorsement. The subsequent rise took him above his previous late-October high, according to Kalshi. These figures reflect traders’ prices, which can change quickly; they do not establish how voters responded to Stevens’s decision.

Stevens narrowly lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed in August and initially supported him. She switched to Rogers two days before polling day, after a dispute involving Israel and an advertisement by an outside group. Stevens said she had been told she was no longer welcome at a joint campaign event. Democratic leaders condemned her endorsement, while El-Sayed said he remained focused on voters’ concerns, including living costs. His campaign reported raising more than $2.4 million on the day Stevens backed Rogers, though the effect of the endorsement on the election remained uncertain.