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As COP31 Antalya kicks off, can world move beyond big promises?
The COP31 climate summit opens in Antalya, Turkey, with delegates under pressure to turn years of promises into practical action as climate-related disasters intensify. The talks will focus again on moving away from coal, oil and gas, but reaching unanimous agreement among nearly every country remains difficult.
Carbon emissions are still rising, and the UN says limiting warming to 1.5°C is no longer possible. If countries fully meet their current commitments, projections put warming at up to 2.6°C, down from an earlier path of 3°C to 3.5°C. Climate expert David Victor argues that smaller partnerships between governments and businesses may deliver more progress, pointing to a recent fossil-fuel transition conference attended by representatives from 57 countries.
In short
- COP31 aims to turn climate pledges into action.
- Current commitments could limit warming to 2.6°C.
- Smaller partnerships may advance the shift from fossil fuels.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Because emissions are still rising and current commitments could mean warming of up to 2.6°C, countries have a strong case for using COP31 to agree on clearer, stronger action and keep pressure on governments to follow through. Broad UN talks can give nearly every country a voice and shared goals can help build trust and accountability across borders.
The case against
Unanimous agreements among nearly every country can be slow and difficult to turn into practical change, so smaller partnerships between governments and businesses may make faster, more targeted progress. Working coalitions can test ways to move beyond fossil fuels and show what is achievable, while broad climate commitments remain in place.
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