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Britain on notice: AI-powered ransomware attacks to arrive by 2028
The NCSC says AI-powered malware is highly likely to feature in a ransomware attack on UK critical infrastructure by 2028. Its warning matters because AI tools could make attacks more frequent and harder to trace, complicating efforts to identify who is responsible.
The NCSC says attackers are already misusing open-source AI security tools, while its assessment considers the possibility of autonomous systems acting beyond human control. A government pilot called Project DROMOS found hundreds of potential security issues, including critical vulnerabilities. Planned defences include Cyber Shield, backed by £60 million, and a £70 million National Exposure and Real-Time Vulnerability Centre.
In short
- AI-powered ransomware is highly likely to target UK infrastructure by 2028.
- The NCSC warns AI could make attacks harder to attribute.
- Government plans include £130 million for cyber defence initiatives.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
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The case for
The warning supports investing early in cyber defences: AI could let attackers find weaknesses faster, scale up ransomware and make attribution harder, putting essential services at greater risk. The reported vulnerabilities found in Project DROMOS suggest there may be practical gaps to address, and the planned programmes could improve the government’s ability to detect and fix them.
The case against
A forecast about what is highly likely by 2028 is not evidence that such an attack will occur, and the risk from autonomous systems acting beyond human control remains uncertain. Large new programmes should therefore be judged against clear evidence of effectiveness and cost, while avoiding alarm that could divert resources from established cyber risks or encourage poorly targeted spending.
Explained simply
Ransomware is a type of cyber attack that locks or encrypts a computer system and demands payment to restore access. Critical infrastructure includes services such as energy, water and transport, whose disruption can affect large numbers of people.
The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), part of GCHQ, advises organisations and the government on cyber threats. AI tools can help people find or exploit weaknesses in computer systems; the NCSC says attackers are already misusing some open-source security tools, while the extent to which automated systems might act independently remains under assessment.
The government is also testing ways to find and fix weaknesses before attackers exploit them. Project DROMOS identified hundreds of potential security issues, and proposed programmes include Cyber Shield and a National Exposure and Real-Time Vulnerability Centre.
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