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Democrats’ midterm sweep opens path to bypassing Electoral College by 2028
Democrats’ recent state-level gains have brought the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact closer to taking effect, potentially changing how participating states allocate their presidential electors by the 2028 election. If activated, the compact would direct those states to award their electors to the winner of the nationwide popular vote, while leaving the Electoral College formally in place.
The compact has been enacted by 18 states and Washington, D.C., representing 222 electoral votes, 48 short of the 270 required. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada could add 50 votes and take it to 272; Arizona could raise the total further if Democrats gain control of both legislative chambers there. Supporters say states can choose how to appoint electors, while critics argue the agreement may need congressional approval and could face constitutional challenges.
In short
- Democrats’ state gains could put the compact over the 270-vote threshold.
- Four states could raise its tally from 222 to 272 electoral votes.
- The compact’s legality and need for congressional approval remain disputed.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters argue that the compact uses states’ existing authority to appoint electors and would make every presidential vote count equally towards the outcome, regardless of where a voter lives. They see it as a way to ensure the presidency goes to the candidate with the broadest national support while preserving the Electoral College in form.
The case against
Critics argue that coordinating states to change how their electors are allocated could reshape the presidential election system without the constitutional process intended for such a change. They contend the compact may require congressional approval and could invite legal disputes, and that a nationwide popular-vote rule could weaken the role of states in the election.
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